I’m convinced we won’t see much expansion in professional sports over the next fifteen years or so. It’s due to current economic conditions, and most major metropolitan areas have teams.

But you will see some moves. Let me give the National Football League as an example.

Los Angeles – the second largest metropolitan area by population in the country – has no NFL team. And, oddly, they weren’t able to pluck an expansion team in the last few years, either. Part of this is the area is such a great place for college football, with USC and UCLA, that there’s less call for pro teams. And it could also use a football-only stadium. I’m guessing somebody will pull it off – but I think this may be the one metropolitan area that will have to wait until the next expansion.

San Francisco/Oakland, on the other hand, has two teams, the only metro area to do so, except New York. That will probably not change. I read an article recently where the city managers are following very carefully the developments in New Jersey, where the Giants and Jets are building a stadium that is a total share, and will look like a Giants stadium for Giants games and a Jet stadium for Jets games – not like a Giants stadium with a few green banners. The problem here is Oakland’s ownership situation, under Al Davis, is one of the worst in the NFL, and San Francisco’s isn’t far behind. They may not be willing to make the compromises necessary to share a stadium – and a shared stadium is almost a must at this point.

Riverside/San Bernardino, also in southern California, doesn’t have a team, but I don’t expect that to change; they’re close enough to Los Angeles that they’ll likely share.

Portland, Oregon, at 23rd place, is the next unoccupied area, and I could see them luring a franchise in the right circumstances. Autzen Stadium, on the University of Oregon campus, could probably be used for a couple of years; Oregon State University is closer, but the stadium doesn’t seat enough people to satisfy NFL standards.

The next few areas with no team: Sacramento, Orlando, San Antonio, and Las Vegas.

Four metropolitan areas with teams have lost population since 2000. Two are Cleveland Pittsburgh, which have just built new stadiums, so they’re not going anywhere. But the others are New Orleans and Buffalo, with unique situations.

New Orleans has lost over 20 percent of its population, primarily due to Katrina. Tom Benson has connections to San Antonio. He’s over 80 years old. And over half the surrounding area in New Orleans is covered by water, which makes drawing new fans difficult. Not hard to see where this is leading, is it?

Buffalo’s a different story. All of upstate New York has been losing population steadily over the last 30 years or so – Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Utica. (And it’s over 200 miles from Buffalo to Utica, which means you don’t have many fans driving across the state for a game. Albany’s gained population, but it’s 290 miles from Albany to Buffalo.) The region is quite depressed economically – many of the businesses that lined cities along the Eric Canal are long one. The Bills play in a pretty old and outdated stadium. And Ralph Wilson is 90 years old. (Maybe it’s not a different story after all.)

The Bills are playing one game every year in Toronto – which has a metropolitan area of over six million people and is an hour and 45 minutes away from Buffalo. If the team moves, it could still hold much of its existing fan base.

Just don't be surprised when it happens.